Rescheduling of marijuana
November 29, 2021
Summary: A bet on whether marijuana will be removed from the Schedule I list before 21 April 2022.
PredictIt has a betting market for the following question:
Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?
The market resolves to
Yes in the event that marijuana is removed
from the Schedule I list before 21 April 2022.
2021 November 29
I placed a $50
Yes bet on PredictIt at $0.10 per share.
I don't believe this event will actually happen per se. Rather, I think the market has mispriced the odds. It's currently at 10% whereas overall I think the chance of this happening is somewhere between 25% and 50%.
At minimum, I think the share price will at least rise before the end date. Representative Mace (R-SC) introduced a cannabis reform bill 2 weeks ago. The bill should at least get some media attention. The main unknown is whether Congress will debate the bill before 21 April 2022.