Kayce Basques

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Rescheduling of marijuana

November 29, 2021

Summary: A bet on whether marijuana will be removed from the Schedule I list before 21 April 2022.

Background

PredictIt has a betting market for the following question:

Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?

The market resolves to Yes in the event that marijuana is removed from the Schedule I list before 21 April 2022.

Updates

2021 November 29

I placed a $50 Yes bet on PredictIt at $0.10 per share.

I don't believe this event will actually happen per se. Rather, I think the market has mispriced the odds. It's currently at 10% whereas overall I think the chance of this happening is somewhere between 25% and 50%.

At minimum, I think the share price will at least rise before the end date. Representative Mace (R-SC) introduced a cannabis reform bill 2 weeks ago. The bill should at least get some media attention. The main unknown is whether Congress will debate the bill before 21 April 2022.